83rd Academy Award Predictions

2010 was, overall, a somewhat mediocre year for films.  Some of these mediocre movies have been nominated for Oscars, which will be presented on Sunday, February 27.  Because I don't want to be known as a grouch when it comes to the Oscars, here are my predictions for this year's Academy Awards.  There are a few bright spots after all:

Best Picture:
Nominees: BLACK SWAN, THE FIGHTER, INCEPTION, THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT, THE KING'S SPEECH, 127 HOURS, THE SOCIAL NETWORK, TOY STORY 3, TRUE GRIT, WINTER'S BONE
Will Win: THE KING'S SPEECH
Should Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
I'll take David Fincher's tragic American tale of a postmodern entrepreneur over a stale, overacted piece of Oscar bait like The King's Speech any day.

Actor in a Leading Role:
Nominees: Javier Barden in BIUTIFUL, Jeff Bridges in TRUE GRIT, Jesse Eisenberg in THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Colin Firth in THE KING'S SPEECH, James Franco in 127 HOURS
Will Win: Colin Firth in THE KING'S SPEECH
Should Win: Jeff Bridges in TRUE GRIT
Sure, Jeff Bridges won last year for his peformance as a crusty old alcoholic in Crazy Heart, but he should win again this year for his performance as another crusty old alcoholic in True Grit.  He's one of our true national treasures, and he manages to live up to the hype of reprising a role made famous by John Wayne himself.

Actor in a Supporting Role:
Nominees: Christian Bale in THE FIGHTER, John Hawkes in WINTER'S BONE, Jeremy Renner in THE FIGHTER, Mark Raffalo in THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, Geoffrey Rush in THE KING'S SPEECH
Will Win: Geoffrey Rush in THE KING'S SPEECH
Should Win: John Hawkes' WINTER'S BONE
John Hawkes contributed to the eerie, norish tone of Winter's Bone through his symapthetic portrayal of a meth addict with a heart of gold.

Actress in a Leading Role:
Nominees: Annette Bening in THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT, Nicole Kidman in RABBIT HOLE, Jennifer Lawrence in WINTER'S BONE, Natalie Portman in BLACK SWAN, Michelle Williams in BLUE VALENTINE
Will Win: Natalie Portman in BLACK SWAN
Should Win: Michelle Williams in BLUE VALENTINE
Blue Valentine is almost unbearably sad, and Williams' versatile depiction of a troubled young woman from her late teens through early thirties is relentlessly realistic and subtle.

Actress in a Supporting Role:
Nominees: Amy Adams in THE FIGHTER, Helena Bohman Carter in THE KING'S SPEECH, Melissa Leo in THE FIGHTER, Hailee Steinfeld in TRUE GRIT, Jacki Weaver in ANIMAL KINGDOM
Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld in TRUE GRIT
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld in TRUE GRIT
Young Steinfeld captured the heart of America in True Grit.  There's no doubt that she'll pick up the trophy.  The only injustice is that she should have been nominated in the best LEADING actress category.

Animated Feature Film:
Nominees: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON, THE ILLUSIONIST, TOY STORY 3
Will Win: TOY STORY 3
Should Win: TOY STORY 3
All three nominated films are strong.  However, there's no denying Toy Story 3's rare combination of critical success and populist appeal.

Directing:
Nominees: Darren Aronofsky for BLACK SWAN, David O. Russell for THE FIGHTER, Tom Hooper for THE KING'S SPEECH, David Fincher for THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for TRUE GRIT
Will Win: Tom Hooper for THE KING'S SPEECH
Should Win: David Fincher for THE SOCIAL NETWORK
The Best Directing award almost always goes to the director of the Best Picture.  Therefore, the award will go to Tom Hooper, although it should go to David Fincher. 

Documentary Feature:
Nominees: EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP, GASLAND, INSIDE JOB, RESTREPO, WASTE LAND
Will Win: INSIDE JOB
Should Win: EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP
Exit Through the Gift Shop is one of the most fascinating, creative documentary features released in years.  However, the Academy, not known for appreciating mysterious sublety, will more than likely award the much more obvious Inside Job.

Music (Original Score):
Nominees: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON, INCEPTION, THE KING'S SPEECH, 127 HOURS, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Will Win: THE KING'S SPEECH
Should Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
The score for The Social Network was written by industrial-rock legend Trent Reznor.  Enough said.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
Nominees: 127 HOURS, THE SOCIAL NETWORK, TOY STORY 3, TRUE GRIT, WINTER'S BONE
Will Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Should Win: TRUE GRIT
The scrips for both The Social Network and True Grit are among the strongest Hollywood has seen in some time.  While I slightly prefer the Coen Brother's comical nihilim, I wouldn't be at all dissapointed if Aaron Sorkin's screwballesque Social Network takes home the gold.

Writing (Original Screenplay):
Nominees: ANOTHER YEAR, THE FIGHTER, INCEPTION, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, THE KING'S SPEECH
Will Win: THE KING'S SPEECH
Should Win: THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
I have a feeling that The King's Speech might clean up on awards night in all major categories, but I much prefer to southern California regionalism of The Kids are All Right. 

Yeah, so there's several other categories as well.  I can't even pretend to be interested in most of them, so there you go.